2025 was another wild ride for CPG shippers, to say the least.
Let’s review the most notable shifts from the year and explore how brands can leverage this information to dominate the retail shelf in 2026.
2025 Freight Market Highlights
While this is not an all-encompassing list of what took place in the U.S. supply chain this year, we’ve noted some of the most impactful.
Technology & Digital Transformation
Across freight modes (ocean, truckload, air), logistics players leaned heavily into AI, automation, and real-time visibility tools.
AI and predictive analytics improved route planning, demand forecasting, and pricing decisions for carriers and shippers alike. Brokers and freight tech platforms saw AI adoption materially improve profitability and routing efficiencies, even in a soft freight demand environment.
Tariffs & Trade Policy Pressures
Is anyone else sick of talking about tariffs?
The trade wars taking place between the U.S. and 50+ countries fluctuated almost non-stop throughout 2025, making it difficult to know the current tariffs in place at any given time.
While tariffs aim to encourage domestic production, they also drive costs up for businesses and consumers. Retailers and manufacturers were forced to adapt to higher import costs while also bracing for retaliatory tariffs, which could make their exports less competitive in key markets. In addition to inflating the prices Americans pay for a wide array of goods, these tariffs threaten to derail the freight industry’s long-awaited recovery.
For the most up-to-date tariff information, please reference this tracker.
Cargo Theft Continues to Surge
Cargo theft has been surging across the United States for several years, and 2025 was no different. From strategic schemes to traditional hijackings, cargo thieves target everything from electronics to food and beverage products. It’s costing the U.S. economy an estimated $15-30 billion annually.
2025 data recorded in Q2 reported 525 cargo thefts in the United States alone, a 33% increase from the second quarter 2024.
Economic Factors to Watch in 2026
While we don’t have a crystal ball to predict the year ahead, preparing for inevitable things like weather, holidays, and economical shifts are the best way to set your supply chain up for success in 2026.
Inflation
Inflation can have ripple effects on the cost of fuel, equipment, labor, insurance, and inventory storage. The Federal Reserve sets a target rate of 2% for maximum employment and price stability.
Good news for us all: inflation rates have remained low and steady, consistently fluctuating between 2 and 3% this year. At the end of November 2025, they resided at 2.7%. Inflation figures for October 2025 are unavailable due to the government shutdown.
Fuel Prices
When the price of fuel goes up, carriers are required to increase their rates or take some losses. Good news for shippers and carriers alike: diesel prices remained very consistent all throughout 2025.
In April 2025, we reported an average diesel price of $3.592 per gallon. Then in July 2025, the average price increased slightly to land at $3.775 and remained stable through September 2025, averaging around $3.749. We ended 2025 averaging $3.544 per gallon.
Freezing Temperatures & Winter Weather Disruption
Freezing temps vary across the U.S., but there are regions that almost always see dangerous cold weather. Typically starting in October and lasting through March, these regions include parts of the Northeast, upper Midwest, Rocky Mountains, and Canada. Although liquids are especially vulnerable, other products can be susceptible to freeze damage without proper precautions. Failure to arm shipments against this can result in spoiled or destroyed products and cost shippers big.
Click here for more information on how to protect your freight from freezing this winter.
Produce Season
Produce season can impact CPG shippers when carriers begin devoting trucks to moving high crop volumes. This additional volume can tighten capacity, drive up rates, and make for some challenging conditions for shippers who don’t prepare accordingly.
Produce season runs mid-spring through mid-summer for most U.S. states, but there are a few whose peak season runs in the back half of the calendar year. Refrigerated transportation in particular will be at a premium during peak seasons.
Check out our state-by-state produce season guide so you know when and where to expect disruption.
A Shifting Demographic of Truck Drivers
Today’s driver population is mostly made up of tiny companies with limited operational flexibility. They are often cash-strapped, working off razor-thin margins, and don’t have many extra assets available. Think about how impactful this is for the average CPG shipper. You’re not dealing with hyper-sophisticated carriers with massive databases of consignee information or an abundance of patience for receiver issues.
Just take the recent system failures at UNFI for example. At the beginning of June 2025, the distributor was hit by a cyberattack and was forced to shut down its entire network to contain the incident. The outage prevented UNFI from fulfilling and distributing customer orders at scale.
In the midst of unforeseen circumstances like this, it’s crucial to have seasoned carrier partners on your side who know how to control the controllables and navigate around disruptions. These types of carriers are increasingly difficult to locate in today’s market, so it’s wise to leverage a well-connected third party to help you do so.
2026 Freight Market Forecast
For more insights on what’s to come in 2026, tune into The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast presented by Zipline Logistics. Episode 79 features your hosts, Teddy Lee Knox and Jesse Juett, along with special guest Andrew Lynch, Co-founder of Zipline Logistics, and dives even deeper into the variables discussed in this article.
“We were conservative about our freight market predictions in 2025,” said Lynch. “In 2026, I believe we’ll finally see slow and steady improvement. It will be the first year since 2019 where supply, demand, and pricing behave the way that our modern supply chains were designed to behave. There will be predictability and consistency. We’ll see an uptick in manufacturing and industrial production. We’ll see slow, steady improvement in demand while provisional capacity continues to be whittled out of the system. Imagine a pre-COVID environment.”
Tune in to Episode 79 for more updates in the CPG/retail freight market just like this. We’re talking all things tariffs, inflation, holiday spending, and more.
Trust Zipline With Your Freight in Turbulent Times
As you can see, there are plenty of variables in the CPG/retail freight market that make it difficult to keep a pulse on the best supply chain strategy. But the good news is, you don’t have to navigate all of this alone!
Zipline Logistics is the only third-party logistics solutions provider in North America exclusively servicing the consumer-packaged goods sector. Our uniquely qualified carrier network, world-class team of retail transportation experts, and state-of-the-art shipper intelligence tools maximize client revenue and gross margin by eliminating out-of-stocks through optimized, on-time in-full performance. By focusing on retail-specialization, we have maintained a customer satisfaction score ranking 5 times the industry average throughout consecutive years of award-winning growth.
Zipline processes were built specifically to resolve the most critical logistics challenges faced by consumer goods brands shipping into retail. We tailor strategies to reduce overall transportation spend, optimize retail performance, and beat out the competition for shelf space. 97% of our orders end up on retailer’s shelves such as Walmart, Costco, UNFI and KeHE, and Sam’s Club.
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