We’re back with our usual quarterly update to give you the latest on all things CPG freight market, retailer dynamics, and what shippers can expect heading into quarter three (Q3).
What Could Impact My Freight in Q3?
Inflation
Inflation can have ripple effects on the cost of fuel, equipment, labor, insurance, and inventory storage. The Federal Reserve sets a target rate of 2% for maximum employment and price stability.
Inflation rates have consistently declined over the last few months, residing at 2.4% at the end of May 2025.
Fuel Prices
When the price of fuel goes up, carriers are required to increase their rates or take some losses.
Diesel prices have remained very consistent over the last few months. In January 2025, we reported an average diesel price of $3.503 per gallon. In April 2025, the price slightly grew to $3.592. As of July 2025, the price increased again to land around $3.775.
CVSA Blitz Weeks
At the beginning of Q3, another Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) blitz will take place. Operation Safe Driver Week will run July 13-19 this year and likely have a ripple effect on capacity.
During these blitz weeks, law enforcement in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will be on roadways issuing warnings and citations to commercial motor vehicles engaging in unsafe driving behaviors such as speeding, distracted driving, following too closely, and drunk/drugged driving.
In addition to out-of-service orders that take drivers off the road, many commercial operators choose not to drive during these weeks, which can have a drastic effect on capacity. One of Zipline’s mid-sized East Coast and Midwest-based carrier partners reported somewhere between 30-40% of their owner-operators were not driving during inspection periods in years past.
Produce Season
Produce season can impact CPG shippers when carriers begin devoting trucks to moving high crop volumes. This additional volume can tighten capacity, drive up rates, and make for some challenging conditions for shippers who don’t prepare accordingly.
Produce season runs mid-spring through mid-summer for most U.S. states, but there are a few whose peak season runs in the back half of the calendar year. Refrigerated transportation in particular will be at a premium during peak seasons.
Check out our state-by-state produce season guide so you know when and where to expect disruption.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
According to AccuWeather, the 2024 hurricane season was one of the most devastating and costly. Hurricane Beryl was deemed the earliest Category 5 on record, while Hurricane Helene pummeled the Southeast with insane rain and flooding, and Hurricane Milton tore across Florida with deadly flooding and tornadoes.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to rumble loudly, too. Experts are forecasting between 13 and 18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts.
Hurricanes can bring fierce winds and flooding that damage infrastructure and physical assets. Often in the face of this risk, manufacturers or shipping facilities will shut down operations to avoid jeopardizing the safety of employees and company property.
Click here for more information about how to prepare for the 2025 hurricane season.
Tariffs on Consumer Goods
The trade wars taking place between the U.S. and 50+ countries have fluctuated almost non-stop over the last few months, making it difficult to know the current tariffs in place at any given time.
Initially, back in February 2025, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on all imports from China. This resulted in retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. from all three countries, ranging from 10-25% on specific types of imports. In March, the U.S. then imposed a 25% tariff on all countries exporting steel and aluminum to the U.S..
The months following these initial tariffs have been a whirlwind to say the least, with some tariff amounts fluctuating from 20% up to 145% and then back down to 30%.
At the time of this writing, there is a 90-day pause on most tariffs proposed on liberation day. Some experts speculate the pause will be extended as the administration continues to negotiate deals.
For the most up-to-date tariff information, please reference this tracker.
A Shifting Demographic of Truck Drivers
Although there are 90,000 more truck drivers operating today than there were in 2020, today’s driver population is mostly made up of tiny companies with limited operational flexibility. They are often cash-strapped, working off razor-thin margins, and don’t have many extra assets available.
Think about how impactful this is for the average CPG shipper. You’re not dealing with hyper-sophisticated carriers with massive databases of consignee information or an abundance of patience for receiver issues.
Just take the recent system failures at UNFI for example. At the beginning of June 2025, the distributor was hit by a cyberattack and was forced to shut down its entire network to contain the incident. The outage prevented UNFI from fulfilling and distributing customer orders at scale.
In the midst of unforeseen circumstances like this, it’s crucial to have seasoned carrier partners on your side who know how to control the controllables and navigate around disruptions.
These types of carriers are increasingly difficult to locate in today’s market, so it’s wise to leverage a well-connected third party to help you do so.
Trust Zipline With Your Freight in Turbulent Times
As you can see, there are plenty of variables in the CPG/retail freight market that make it difficult to keep a pulse on the best supply chain strategy. But the good news is, you don’t have to navigate all of this alone.
Zipline Logistics is the only third-party logistics solutions provider in North America exclusively servicing the consumer-packaged goods sector. Our uniquely qualified carrier network, world-class team of retail transportation experts, and state-of-the-art shipper intelligence tools maximize client revenue and gross margin by eliminating out-of-stocks through optimized, on-time in-full performance. By focusing on retail-specialization, we have maintained a customer satisfaction score ranking 5 times the industry average throughout consecutive years of award-winning growth.
Zipline processes were built specifically to resolve the most critical logistics challenges faced by consumer goods brands shipping into retail. We tailor strategies to reduce overall transportation spend, optimize retail performance, and beat out the competition for shelf space. 97% of our orders end up on retailer’s shelves such as Walmart, Costco, UNFI and KeHE, and Sam’s Club.
How Are Freight Market Dynamics Trending in Q3?
For more insights on what’s to come in Q3, tune into The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast presented by Zipline Logistics. This episode features your hosts, Teddy Lee Knox and Jesse Juett, along with special guest Andrew Lynch, President & Co-founder of Zipline Logistics.
“We’re dealing with the same exact market as last quarter, the quarter before that, and essentially the eight quarters prior to those,” said Lynch during the episode, “I think everybody feels optimistic that this recession is coming to a close. Anecdotally, we’re starting to see more of a focus on actual partnerships. If sentiment leads to reality, then we’re making headway. But statistically, we seem to still be stuck in a hamster wheel.”
Tune in to Episode 66 for more updates in the CPG/retail freight market just like this: we’re talking all things tariffs, inflation, blitz weeks, and more.
Have more questions about the freight market?
