After a prolonged “soft” freight market, many analysts believe a market flip my finally be on the horizon.
Read on for the latest updates in the CPG/retail freight market: produce season, rising fuel costs, blitz weeks, and more.
What Could Impact My Freight in Q2 2026?
Rising Fuel Prices
When the price of fuel goes up, carriers are required to increase their rates or take some losses.
Due to oil supply disruptions driven by the current conflict in the Middle East, U.S. diesel prices have surged above $5 per gallon in March 2026. This marks the highest levels since December 2022.
Before the conflict, diesel prices remained relatively steady. In September 2025, we reported an average diesel price of $3.749 per gallon and then started January 2026 averaging $3.544 per gallon. As of March 2026, the price has skyrocketed to an average of $5.401.
Inflation Remains Steady (For Now)
Inflation can have ripple effects on the cost of fuel, equipment, labor, insurance, and inventory storage. The Federal Reserve sets a target rate of 2% for maximum employment and price stability.
Inflation rates have consistently decreased over the last few months, residing at 2.4% at the end of February 2026. Rates have been hovering around this number since January 2024.
According to CBS News, experts say higher fuel and transportation costs could eventually trickle through to other parts of the economy, likely in the form of price inflation.
New Carrier Regulations & Impact on CPG Shippers
Dalilah’s Law, as outlined in this FreightWaves article, is a proposed federal bill aimed at tightening commercial driver’s license (CDL) standards. It also aims to remove what lawmakers see as safety and regulatory gaps in the trucking industry.
At its core, the bill would significantly restrict who can legally hold a CDL. It would require proof of legal status, mandate English-only testing, and force states to revoke non-compliant licenses or risk losing federal funding. It would also introduce stricter safety enforcement measures, including the potential for lifetime bans for serious violations.
For carrier partners, the biggest impact would likely be a sharp reduction in available drivers. Estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of drivers—potentially over 15% of the workforce—could be disqualified if the law is enacted as written. This would create immediate capacity constraints, especially in already tight or specialized lanes.
Industry projections suggest spot rates could rise significantly—potentially 50–100% in constrained markets—if capacity drops quickly. This wouldn’t just be a short-term spike; it could fundamentally reset pricing power back to carriers after years of shipper-favorable conditions.
Regulatory pressure isn’t limited to Dalilah’s Law. Policies like California AB5 are still reshaping the owner-operator model, particularly in key port markets like Los Angeles. By making it harder for independent drivers to operate, these types of laws can shrink capacity in critical regions. They can also push costs higher, especially for drayage and short-haul moves that CPG brands rely on.
Ocean Freight Disruptions
The Red Sea crisis has been ongoing for over two years now. Finally in 2026, container shipping lines have begun to reintroduce transits through the Red Sea.
More good news: the Panama Canal has fully recovered operationally from its historic drought. Unfortunately, Panama’s rebound is happening just as other major waterways close. The Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz are both effectively closed following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, triggering another major carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.
The Cape reroute adds about 19 days to westbound Asia–Europe transits and seven days eastbound. That time penalty cuts annual cargo throughput per vessel on affected routes by 10–15%. Industry analysts estimate $2–3 billion per week in additional carrier operating expenses.
Cargo Theft & Fraud Continues to Surge
Supply chain losses from theft surged to nearly $725 million in 2025.
There is continual conversation around fraud and security in freight, with increased attention from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and other industry groups. Double brokering, cargo theft, and identity fraud are becoming more sophisticated, which adds risk (and cost) to moving high-value CPG goods. Shippers are being pushed to tighten vetting processes and work with more trusted partners.
According to Verisk CargoNet, 3,594 supply chain crime events were recorded in the U.S. and Canada in 2025, with confirmed cargo theft incidents rising 18% year over year and the average theft value increasing 36% to $273,990, driven by organized criminal groups targeting higher-value freight.
More Tariff Tensions
There is still ongoing trade tension between the United States and China. While many of the Section 301 tariffs from prior years are still in place, there’s been renewed discussion about expanding or increasing tariffs on key categories like food ingredients, packaging materials, and consumer goods.
When tariffs increase, shippers tend to react in waves. First, there’s often a pull-forward effect: brands rush to import goods ahead of tariff deadlines. That creates short-term spikes in ocean volumes, port congestion, and inland truck demand. After that surge, we typically see a demand dip as inventories get worked down.
As tariffs raise product costs, CPG brands often look to offset that by tightening logistics spend: bidding lanes more aggressively, consolidating shipments, or shifting modes. But if tariffs coincide with tightening capacity (like what could happen with Dalilah’s Law), that creates a tough environment where costs are rising on both the product and transportation side.
For CPG shippers, it’s critical to stay ahead of policy changes, communicate closely with suppliers, and be ready to flex your transportation strategy quickly when those policy shifts trigger demand swings.
CVSA Blitz Week Capacity Strains
In the middle of Q2, the first Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) blitz of 2026 will take place. The CVSA’s International Roadcheck will run May 12-14 this year and will likely have a ripple effect on capacity.
During International Roadcheck, inspectors at weigh/inspection stations and pop-up inspection sites primarily conduct the North American Standard Level I Inspection, a 37-step procedure that includes two major parts: an examination of the driver’s operating requirements and an assessment of the vehicle’s mechanical fitness.
For the driver portion of the inspection, inspectors check the driver’s qualifications, license, record of duty status, medical examiner’s certificate, seat belt usage, skill performance evaluation certificate, and status in the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse (in the U.S.). Inspectors also look for signs of alcohol and/or drug impairment. If an inspector identifies driver out-of-service violations, they will place the driver out of service, restricting that driver from operating their vehicle.
In addition to out of service orders that take drivers off the road, many commercial operators choose not to drive during these weeks, which can have a drastic effect on capacity. One of Zipline’s mid-sized East Coast and Midwest-based carrier partners reported somewhere between 30-40% of their owner-operators were not driving during inspection periods in years past.
Produce Season in Full Swing
Produce season can impact CPG shippers when carriers begin devoting trucks to moving high crop volumes. This additional volume can tighten capacity, drive up rates, and make for some challenging conditions for shippers who don’t prepare accordingly.
Produce season runs mid-spring through mid-summer for most U.S. states, but there are a few whose peak season runs in the back half of the calendar year. Refrigerated transportation in particular will be at a premium during peak seasons.
Check out our state-by-state produce season guide so you know when and where to expect disruption.
How Are Freight Market Dynamics Trending in Q2?
For more insights on what’s to come in Q2, tune into The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast presented by Zipline Logistics. This episode features your host, Jesse Juett, along with special guest Andrew Lynch, Co-founder of Zipline Logistics.
“There’s a narrative floating around right now, saying the ‘good times’ are over for CPG shippers,” said Lynch. “But at least from what I can see, that’s not what’s going on. I don’t know that I see the demand cycle being all that different right now than what we thought it was going look like heading into 2026.”
Tune in to Episode 85 for more updates in the CPG/retail freight market just like this: we’re talking all things fuel prices, inflation, blitz weeks, produce season, and more.
Trust a 3PL With Your Freight in Turbulent Times
As you can see, there are plenty of variables in the CPG/retail freight market that make it difficult to keep a pulse on the best supply chain strategy. But the good news is, you don’t have to navigate all of this alone.
Zipline Logistics is the only third-party logistics solutions provider in North America exclusively servicing consumer-packaged goods and retail. Our curated carrier network, retail experts and SOPs, and state-of-the-art proprietary technology unlocks growth for brands, protects margins, and enhances customer experience through flawless on-time, in-full execution.
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