We’re already in the second quarter of 2025? Time sure does fly when you’re slingin’ freight.
Read on for the latest updates in the CPG/retail freight market: tariffs, dockworker strikes, inflation, blitz weeks, and more.
What Could Impact My Freight in Q2?
Inflation
Inflation can have ripple effects on the cost of fuel, equipment, labor, insurance, and inventory storage. The Federal Reserve sets a target rate of 2% for maximum employment and price stability.
Inflation rates have consistently decreased over the last few months, residing at 2.8% at the end of February 2025. Rates have been hovering around this number since January 2024. We have certainly come a long way since rates slowly skyrocketed up to 9.1% in June 2022.
Fuel Prices
When the price of fuel goes up, carriers are required to increase their rates or take some losses.
Diesel prices have remained very consistent over the last few months. In October 2024, we reported an average diesel price of $3.544 per gallon. In January 2025, the price slightly dropped to $3.503. As of March 2024, the price increased slightly to land around $3.592.
Freezing Temperatures & Winter Weather Disruption
The holidays are long behind us, which means peak holiday disruption is no longer a hurdle. But freezing temperatures are still lingering in many regions of North America.
Freezing temps vary across the U.S., but there are regions that almost always see dangerous cold weather. Typically starting in October and lasting through March, these regions include parts of the Northeast, upper Midwest, Rocky Mountains, and Canada. Although liquids are especially vulnerable, other products can be susceptible to freeze damage without proper precautions. Failure to arm your shipments against this can result in spoiled or destroyed products and cost shippers big.
Click here for more information on how to protect your freight from freezing throughout cold temperatures.
CVSA Blitz Weeks
Towards the end of Q2, the first Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) blitz of 2025 will take place. The CVSA’s International Road Check will run May 13-15 this year and will likely have a ripple effect on capacity.
During these blitz weeks, law enforcement in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will be on roadways issuing warnings and citations to commercial motor vehicles engaging in unsafe driving behaviors such as speeding, distracted driving, following too closely, and drunk/drugged driving.
In addition to out-of-service orders that take drivers off the road, many commercial operators choose not to drive during these weeks, which can have a drastic effect on capacity. One of Zipline’s mid-sized East Coast and Midwest-based carrier partners reported somewhere between 30-40% of their owner-operators were not driving during inspection periods in years past.
Produce Season
Produce season can impact CPG shippers when carriers begin devoting trucks to moving high crop volumes. This additional volume can tighten capacity, drive up rates, and make for some challenging conditions for shippers who don’t prepare accordingly.
Produce season runs mid-spring through mid-summer for most U.S. states, but there are a few whose peak season runs in the back half of the calendar year. Refrigerated transportation in particular will be at a premium during peak seasons.
Check out our state-by-state produce season guide so you know when and where to expect disruption.
Port Strikes: The ILA and USMX Reach Agreement
Back in October 2024, 50,000 dockworkers walked off the job at East and Gulf Coast ports after failing to reach an agreement with ports ownership on a new contract. This was the union’s first strike since 1977 and lasted three days, costing the economy billions and bringing half of U.S. container trade to a halt.
The good news is the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) voted to ratify a new labor contract with their port and ocean carrier employers. According to ILA President, Harold Daggett, 99% of workers backed the $35 billion contract — which was nearly twice the value of the previous agreement. This settlement offers royalty funds, enhancements to the union’s health care plan, and full protection against job-replacing automation.
With so much looming uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies and tariffs, The ILA-USMX agreement is great news for importers, retailers, and consumers alike.
Tariffs May Disrupt Freight Market Recovery
During the first week of March, the Trump administration declared a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada as well as a 20% tariff on China, saying the tariffs are necessary to stop illegal border crossings and the flow of fentanyl into the United States. Collectively, these countries shipped $1.4 trillion worth of goods to the United States last year.
Many other tariffs have been threatened on specific imports from both European and South American countries over the last few months. The percentages and timelines of these tariffs going into effect have fluctuated quite drastically, panicking retailers and consumers alike.
While the tariffs aim to encourage domestic production, they will also drive costs up for businesses and consumers. Retailers, like Walmart, say tariffs will force them to raise their prices. Retailers and manufacturers will be forced to adapt to higher import costs while also bracing for retaliatory tariffs, which could make their exports less competitive in key markets.
In addition to inflating the prices Americans pay for a wide array of goods, these tariffs threaten to derail the freight industry’s long-awaited recovery.
Canada, for example, is a major U.S. supplier of steel, aluminum, paper, and plastics. The increased cost of importing these raw materials is expected to escalate production expenses for packaging manufacturers. To mitigate the impact of increased costs, companies may seek alternative suppliers or relocate parts of their operations, resulting in supply chain delays and inefficiencies.
Trust Us With Your Freight in Turbulent Times
As you can see, there are plenty of variables in the CPG/retail freight market that make it difficult to keep a pulse on the best supply chain strategy. But the good news is, you don’t have to navigate all of this alone.
Zipline Logistics is the only third-party logistics solutions provider in North America exclusively servicing the consumer-packaged goods sector. Our uniquely qualified carrier network, world-class team of retail transportation experts, and state-of-the-art shipper intelligence tools maximize client revenue and gross margin by eliminating out-of-stocks through optimized, on-time in-full performance. By focusing on retail-specialization, we have maintained a customer satisfaction score ranking 5 times the industry average throughout consecutive years of award-winning growth.
Zipline processes were built specifically to resolve the most critical logistics challenges faced by consumer goods brands shipping into retail. We tailor strategies to reduce overall transportation spend, optimize retail performance, and beat out the competition for shelf space. 97% of our orders end up on retailer’s shelves such as Walmart, Costco, UNFI and KeHE, and Sam’s Club.
How Are Freight Market Dynamics Trending in Q2?
For more insights on what’s to come in Q2, tune into The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast presented by Zipline Logistics. This episode features your hosts, Teddy Lee Knox and Jesse Juett, along with special guest Andrew Lynch, President & Co-founder of Zipline Logistics.
“Everything that was true for the first quarter of the year is really probably true for the second too,” remarked Lynch during the episode, “There are going to be bumps in the road for shippers who are overplaying their hand, but that’s the case in any sort of transitional market.
“The transition into a tighter market is certainly happening right now and the biggest risk in Q2 is around service. Shippers shouldn’t have budget risk anywhere in this year, except to the extent that their realized revenue is different from their budgeted revenue — likely due to service failures abounding.”
Tune in to Episode 59 for more updates in the CPG/retail freight market just like this: we’re talking all things tariffs, dockworker strikes, inflation, blitz weeks, and more.
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