After months of waiting for a meaningful market shift, last quarter proved once again that freight doesn’t always follow the expected playbook.
Despite seasonal demand from produce, beverages, and retail, freight volumes have remained relatively steady while capacity continues to tighten. The result is a market where costs and service can change quickly, even without a dramatic surge in demand.
As we head into Q3 of 2026, CPG shippers should keep a close eye on the factors shaping transportation costs and capacity. Rising inflation, high ocean freight demand, retailer blitz weeks, and other seasonal pressures are creating new challenges across the supply chain.
Read on for the latest CPG logistics updates and what they could mean for your freight strategy this quarter.
What Could Impact My Freight in Q3 2026?
Fuel Prices Slightly Declining
When the price of fuel goes up, carriers are required to increase their rates or take some losses.
Due to oil supply disruptions driven by the conflict in the Middle East, U.S. diesel prices surged above $5 per gallon in March 2026. This marked the highest price since December 2022.
Before the conflict, diesel prices remained relatively steady. In January 2026, we reported an average fuel price of $3.544 per gallon. In March 2026, that average skyrocketed to $5.401. And as of late June 2026, costs are dropping and now hover around $4.668 per gallon.
Inflation Rising
Inflation can have ripple effects on the cost of fuel, equipment, labor, insurance, and inventory storage. The Federal Reserve sets a target rate of 2% for maximum employment and price stability.
Inflation rates were consistently decreasing at the beginning of the year, residing at 2.4% at the end of February 2026. Likely due to higher fuel and transportation costs over the last few months, we’ve seen inflation gradually rise to 4.2% as of May 2026.
High Ocean Freight Demand
Ocean freight continues to tighten heading into Q3. Global demand is up roughly 4% year-to-date, fueled by strong export volumes from Asia, while effective capacity remains constrained by port congestion, ongoing Suez Canal diversions, and limited vessel availability. As a result, carriers are maintaining pricing power and ocean rates continue to climb during peak season.
CPG importers should also expect elevated bunker fuel costs to keep pressure on ocean pricing in the months ahead. For shippers relying on transpacific imports, securing bookings earlier and planning for longer lead times will be key as demand remains strong and available capacity stays tight.
Produce Season in Full Swing
Produce season can impact CPG shippers when carriers begin devoting trucks to moving high crop volumes. This additional volume can tighten capacity, drive up rates, and make for some challenging conditions for shippers who don’t prepare accordingly.
Produce season runs mid-spring through mid-summer for most U.S. states, but there are a few whose peak season runs in the back half of the calendar year. Refrigerated transportation in particular will be at a premium during peak seasons.
Check out our state-by-state produce season guide so you know when and where to expect disruption.
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
According to AccuWeather, 11-16 named storms are predicted to strike the United States during the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This prediction includes 4-7 regular hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes, and 3-5 direct impacts on the country.
For comparison, the historical average is 14 named storms, 7 regular hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. At the same time, experts say a developing El Niño could slow tropical activity later in the season.
El Niño refers to an event where ocean temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean run warmer than usual. This creates stronger upper-level winds across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape. With El Niño forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half.
Click here to learn how you can prepare your supply chain to weather hurricane season.
Ongoing Tariff Tensions
Tariff policy continues to evolve, making it difficult for importers to plan with confidence.
While the broader tariffs have been replaced with a 10% global surcharge on most imports, product-specific duties on items like steel, aluminum, automobiles, and certain Chinese goods remain in effect. Trade negotiations with key partners also continue to shift the landscape, meaning requirements can change quickly depending on the country of origin and commodity.
When tariffs increase, shippers tend to react in waves. First, there’s often a pull-forward effect: brands rush to import goods ahead of tariff deadlines. That creates short-term spikes in ocean volumes, port congestion, and inland truck demand. After that surge, we typically see a demand dip as inventories get worked down.
As tariffs raise product costs, CPG brands often look to offset that by tightening logistics spend: bidding lanes more aggressively, consolidating shipments, or shifting modes. But if tariffs coincide with tightening capacity, that creates a tough environment where costs are rising on both the product and transportation side.
With so many moving pieces, staying informed is critical. Check out this tariff tracker for the latest updates, current rates, and implementation timelines before your next shipment.
CVSA Blitz Week Capacity Strains
The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) has two upcoming blitz weeks scheduled. 2026 Operation Safe Driver Week will take place July 12-18, followed by Brake Safety Week from August 23-29. Shippers should prepare for tight capacity at both times.
Law enforcement in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will be on roadways issuing warnings and citations to commercial motor vehicles engaging in unsafe driving behaviors such as speeding, distracted driving, fatigued/drowsy driving, following too closely, impaired driving, failure to wear a seatbelt, unsafe lane changes, and disregarding traffic signals.
In addition to out of service orders that take drivers off the road, many commercial operators choose not to drive during these weeks, which can have a drastic effect on capacity. One of Zipline’s mid-sized East Coast and Midwest-based carrier partners reported somewhere between 30-40% of their owner-operators were not driving during inspection periods in years past.
Dalilah’s Law & California AB5
Dalilah’s Law is a federal bill approved by the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on March 18, 2026. It now awaits a full vote on the House floor. The bill aims to tighten commercial driver’s license (CDL) standards and remove what lawmakers see as safety and regulatory gaps in the trucking industry.
At its core, the bill would significantly restrict who can legally hold a CDL. It would require proof of legal status, mandate English-only testing, and force states to revoke non-compliant licenses or risk losing federal funding. It would also introduce stricter safety enforcement measures, including the potential for lifetime bans for serious violations.
For carrier partners, the biggest impact would likely be a sharp reduction in available drivers. Estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of drivers—potentially over 15% of the workforce—could be disqualified if the law is enacted as written. This would create immediate capacity constraints, especially in already tight or specialized lanes.
Industry projections suggest spot rates could rise significantly—potentially 50–100% in constrained markets—if capacity drops quickly. This wouldn’t just be a short-term spike; it could fundamentally reset pricing power back to carriers after years of shipper-favorable conditions.
Regulatory pressure isn’t limited to Dalilah’s Law. Policies like California AB5 are still reshaping the owner-operator model, particularly in key port markets like Los Angeles. By making it harder for independent drivers to operate, these types of laws can shrink capacity in critical regions. They can also push costs higher, especially for drayage and short-haul moves that CPG brands rely on.
The Supreme Court’s Broker Liability Ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court’s recent unanimous decision allowing trucking brokers to be held liable for negligent carrier hiring could significantly impact the freight market, especially for CPG brands shipping into retail environments.
The ruling opens the door for brokers to face legal liability if they hire unsafe carriers that later cause accidents or damages. As a result, brokers across the industry will likely tighten carrier qualification standards and become more selective about who moves freight.
Soon after the ruling, C.H. Robinson stopped contracting carriers with a ‘Conditional’ FMCSA safety rating and raised minimum insurance to $1 million.
For CPG shippers, the ripple effects could be substantial. Click here to learn more.
How Are Freight Market Dynamics Trending in Q3?
For more insights on what’s to come in Q3, tune into The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast presented by Zipline Logistics. This episode features your hosts, Jesse Juett and Teddy Lee Knox, along with special guest Andrew Lynch, Co-founder of Zipline Logistics.
“I don’t see demand trends shifting much outside of seasonality,” said Lynch. “We haven’t seen a big shift in demand dynamics even though we’re in a seasonally high demand time of year right now. I think supply trends move in much longer terms than demand trends do.”
Tune in to Episode 92 for more updates in the CPG/retail freight market just like this: we’re talking all things inflation, blitz weeks, hurricane season, and more.
Trust a 3PL With Your Freight in Turbulent Times
As you can see, there are plenty of variables in the CPG/retail freight market that make it difficult to keep a pulse on the best supply chain strategy. But the good news is, you don’t have to navigate all of this alone.
Zipline Logistics is the only third-party logistics solutions provider in North America exclusively servicing consumer-packaged goods and retail. Our curated carrier network, retail experts and SOPs, and state-of-the-art proprietary technology unlocks growth for brands, protects margins, and enhances customer experience through flawless on-time, in-full execution.
Have more questions about the freight market?
